Vaccines and autism: Is the science settled?

Toby Rogers maps the entire field of autism causation studies

We are often told that the science is settled - vaccines do not cause autism.

Yet, studies do exist suggesting an association, so how do we square this?

Very few have honestly tried to answer this question, and even if you wanted to, where would you begin?

This article by

Toby Rogers

is a great place to start: ‘Mapping the entire field of autism causation studies in one article.’

Mapping the entire field of autism causation studies in one article

Toby has a PhD in political economy from the University of Sydney in Australia and a Master of Public Policy degree from the University of California, Berkeley. He is a Brownstone Institute fellow, and his research focuses on regulatory capture and corruption in the pharmaceutical industry.

I had the pleasure of meeting Toby at several Brownstone events last year, and heard him speak on the topic of autism several times. My assessment of his work is that it is rigorous, and that he arrives at strongly stated opinions through a process of genuine open-minded inquiry. My assessment of his character is that he is principled, concerned with what is true, and motivated by sincere compassion for families touched by autism.

Summary

Covering more than 850 studies on autism causation in the US, the article groups studies into the main categories addressing different causation theories, explaining strengths, weaknesses, and key findings.

What is missing is the kind of research that would need to be conducted to rule out a causal association between vaccines and autism. This would include:

• RCTs for individual vaccines with a proper inert placebo group (Only two vaccines on the US childhood schedule were tested in a placebo-controlled trial; only one of these for a period of more than six months. See here for the full list.);

• Studies investigating the cumulative effects of multiple shots given over time;

• Studies investigating interactions between vaccines/vaccine components and other factors such as genetics or environmental toxins;

• Studies investigating what kind of conditions and predispositions make people more susceptible to vaccine injury, if any; and,

• Large studies comparing vaccinated vs. unvaccinated cohorts.

While the ‘settled science’ crowd tends to focus on a group of studies claiming to prove no association between MMR vaccines or thimerosal-containing vaccines and autism, there is a dearth of research of the type that would be required to actually prove no association or causation between vaccines and autism.

Genetics is not the main driver of the surge in autism prevalence - there is no such thing as a genetic epidemic, and US $2 billion of government funding invested into finding the genetic cause of autism has thus far failed to produce any major breakthroughs.

Given that the majority (possibly up to 88%) of autism cases are characterised by autistic regression, acute toxic exposure is a leading hypothesis for autism causation. Anecdotally, a multitude of parents say this regression follows a vaccination appointment; these testimonies should inform the generation of questions and hypotheses for empirical research.

Epigenetics studies provide valuable insights into environmental factors/toxicants that should be studied further, but the utility of their findings is limited due to failure to control for vaccination as a confounding variable.

There are a handful of good vaccinated vs. unvaccinated studies that suggest causation between vaccination and autism, chronic illnesses, neurodevelopmental disabilities, and ADHD.

All summarised in one infographic:

You don’t have to take Toby’s interpretation of the studies on faith - he’s linked many of them, so you can use this article as a launch pad for your own further reading.

This article builds on Toby’s earlier work in his doctoral thesis on the political economy of autism, summarised and downloadable in full here:

The Political Economy of Autism

It’s a lengthy read but worth it. Some standout factoids that surprised me from this reading:

• No diagnostic biomarkers for ASD validated as yet - incredible, given the focus on finding a genetic cause;

• I was not previously aware that so many toxins had already been linked to ASD;

• The unreliability of peer reviewed literature - I knew this was a problem but didn’t realise so many high profile academics and editors had written about it;

• I was surprised at how cheap it is to buy off institutions like the CDC, FDA, and NIH;

• The relative lack of chemicals regulation by the EPA - shocking;

• “No safe dose” and “timing makes the poison” both new concepts to me, but seem obvious after having been explained;

• Causation can be multi-factorial and not necessarily simultaneous with a single toxic exposure; and,

• Strong evidence for an association between SSRI use in pregnancy and autism.

Personally, it never occurred to me to read any books or studies on autism causation, and especially not in relation to vaccines until entire populations were coerced into taking novel therapeutics in the absence of appropriate scientific evidence (and informed consent) during Covid.

I’d never heard of anti-vaxxers and I was unaware that vaccines could have serious side effects.

However, once you realise that ‘safe and effective’ is not the guarantee you thought it was, this prompts follow up enquiries.

In the past several years I’ve read many studies and books on vaccines, the diseases they are supposed to prevent, and their safety and effectiveness, but I feel as though I’m still catching up on a lifetime of education.

As I keep researching, I will keep sharing resources that I find helpful, and summarising my learnings with projects like the recent webinar I facilitated on measles, with accompanying notes in collaboration with

Robyn Chuter

.

Let me know in the comments what resources you’ve found helpful in coming to better understand this topic...

---

To support my work, share, subscribe, and/or make a one-off contribution to my Kofi account. Thanks!

Follow me on X

Follow me on Instagram