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4+ doses is the magic number if you want to die with Covid
NSW Health data and the case for negative vaccine effectiveness
Man alive! Surely this is not what NSW Health is going for?
Would you look at the risk multiplier on that. People with 4+ doses of Covid vaccination are 2.1 x more likely than the average punter to wind up dead with Covid.
It’s not looking any better for the 4+ dosed in hospitalisations and ICU admissions either.
If the data keep going this way, the public’s relationship with NSW Health is going to get very strained. They keep telling us that Covid vaccines prevent severe illness and death. NSW Secretary Susan Pearce says that the ICU data shows this, irrefutably. I’ve lodged an FOIR for that mystery data because the only publicly available data tells a different story altogether.
As for the unvaccinated - as Joel from Dead Man Talking says, they simply aren’t dying enough.
This is very bad for The Narrative™️.
To get current, deaths with Covid in the most recently reported surveillance week (ending 15 October) were split:
4+ dose 53.3%
3 dose 16.7%
Combined 3 and 4+ dose 70%
2 dose 13.3%
1 dose 0%
0 dose 6.7%
This is where vaccination coverage is at across the whole population. 0 dose column added by me:
We have 19.4% of the NSW population 4+ dosed, accounting for 53.3% of deaths with Covid. I’m trying to think of a way to spin this for vaccine effectiveness.
Edit (23 October 2022): a few Twitter users got very upset with me for not specifically mentioning Simpon’s paradox here. Fair enough. I’ve addressed it in this follow up post:
Another possibility is that the data show negative vaccine effectiveness. I am not qualified to make the case for this claim. However, Arkmedic makes it convincingly:
If negative vaccine effectiveness is the explanation for the nasty looking NSW data, then hoo boy, 2023 is going to be rough. And not just for the 4+ vaxxed. Nearly 20% of the Australian population has received 4+ doses of Covid vaccination, and it’s likely that this figure will grow. We may also see additional doses approved and made accessible.
We’ve been reminded again and again of the importance of not burdening the hospital system with our sick bodies. If the vaccines have negative effectiveness with increasing doses over time, what are the implications for our health care system? For our aged care network? For our disability services?
If only we had some long term data on safety and effectiveness to refer to.
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Two points that people tend to raise when confronted with data showing high rates of death with Covid for the boosted:
1. There is an age effect
2. All the Unknowns are Unvaccinated
The first is a fair point, but one that pokes major holes in the ongoing drive to vaccinate babies and young adults. The second is unsupported.
First, there is undoubtedly an age effect. Babies aren’t allowed to be vaccinated against Covid unless in high risk groups and they’re at extremely low risk of dying from Covid. On the other hand, 71% of NSW deaths with Covid last week were in aged care (it’s usually more around the 50% mark). The elderly are more likely to have received 4+ shots because they were prioritised at the beginning of the rollout, and they are usually the first group to get access to each added dose (we’re now up to 5 max). The age effect cannot be measured until NSW Health releases age stratified data by dose rate. I have an FOIR in for this. I imagine others do also.
However, if the age effect is the reason for the drastic over representation of the 4+ dosed in deaths with Covid, then it begs the question - are the vaccines working for the very people they are supposed to protect? To those who say yes, I would like to know, how are you measuring this? If the age effect really is the sole factor for the 4+ dosed death rate, then why on earth did our governments go so hard on vaccinating young people?
Second, people speculate that Unknowns are Unvaccinated. Even if that were the case, it doesn’t change the god-awful outcomes for the 4+ dosed group. It would barely change the 0 dose death count anyway, as there are so few deaths categorised as Unknown (see graph and chart at the top of this post). More importantly though, the notion that the Unknown group is comprised of 0 dosed people is pure speculation.
The Unknown category includes vaccinated people who: were vaccinated overseas; have an interstate address; have a misspelled name on their hospital form; have recently changed name (marriage); or whose details do not match the AIR database for any other reason. Here is an example of one week where every single Unknown was double or triple vaccinated:
The 8 x ‘Unknowns’ were blended with the 12 x ‘No dose’ into one category called ‘No dose/Unknown’ in the final report. The above was spotted by an eagle eye who tracked daily announcements by NSW Health, then cross-checked them against the weekly report. Really, what Unknown means is ‘unverified in AIR’, vaccinated or otherwise. Makes sense, as this is exactly the definition given for the Unknown category in the NSW surveillance reports.
By NSW Health’s own account, people who had received a single dose of Covid vaccine were categorised as Unkown for at least two and a half months of reporting.
In the below screenshot from NSW surveillance report, week 26 December 2021 - 01 January 2022, NSW Health states that, “Cases between October and mid-December with an unknown status are likely to have received at least one dose, but their record could not be matched with AIR.”
If you’d like to get into more of the nitty gritty on Unknowns, with vs. of Covid, and the implications of the NSW data on the argument for vaccine mandates, passports and other related measures, you can read my more in depth summary from late August:
See The Naked Emperor’s new post (23 Oct 2022) announcing a new study demonstrating negative vaccine efficacy.
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